Rogers in Singapore's Chinatown
More and more people on Wall Street say the commodities boom is over. Is it?
That's a very good question. I have certainly noticed what you've noticed, and it's a good sign from my point of view. I've been around markets long enough to know that when everybody's on one side of the boat, it's probably not the right side to be on. During the long bull market in equities between 1982 and 2000, stocks collapsed in 1987 and they fell in '90, '94, '97, and '98. Every time, people said, "Well, the bull market's over." But the bull market was not over. And like most long bull markets, it eventually ended in a mania and a bubble.
So you don't think we've reached the mania stage yet with commodities?
I don't see enough supply having come onstream in most commodities to end the bull market. Agriculture inventories are near historical lows because the world has consumed more than it grows for a decade now. Many minerals companies have canceled capital-spending programs because they, too, have heard from Wall Street that the boom is over. I haven't seen a mania yet.
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