Hooking the Next Winner Comcast's Disney bid is the latest--but not the last--in a wave of deals. Here's how to profit from the media merger game.
By Yuval Rosenberg

(FORTUNE Magazine) – When cable leviathan Comcast announced its $66 billion hostile bid for Disney in early February, the biggest surprise was the timing. Comcast had just digested AT&T's broadband business, and Disney's stock was up substantially from its price only months earlier. Yet in other ways Comcast's bold move to create the world's largest media conglomerate was no surprise at all. The Mouse House looked vulnerable and in turmoil. And the move had been widely rumored as a possible next step in the ongoing media race to acquire the right mix of programming and distribution assets.

More often than not, that type of mega-merger fails to produce value for the shareholders of the acquiring company. Comcast shares, for example, will probably stay put as long as a potential takeover looms, and they would likely sink lower if Comcast returns with a sweetened offer for Disney. Still, those dips could be a good chance to buy in. "Sit back and just watch for entry opportunities into Comcast," suggests analyst Kevin Calabrese of Argus Research, "because, win or lose on the Disney deal, Comcast has a very bright future." But with so many open questions about how the bid shakes out, the forecast for Disney and Comcast stocks may be too cloudy for most investors to gamble on.

Other opportunities could lie ahead, though, because the wheeling and dealing is far from done. In fact, Comcast's move unleashed a tidal wave of speculation in the cozy fishbowl that is the media world: Who might get swallowed up next? Who, besides the investment bankers, stands to benefit most from the bid? "Inherently such a substantial merger (regardless of whether it is ultimately successful) will have a trickle-down effect across both the cable and entertainment industries," analyst Richard Greenfield of Fulcrum Global Partners wrote in a report soon after the bid.

That doesn't mean you should expect a cascade of major countermoves from the heavyweights of the cable and entertainment industries. Not yet, at least. For starters, News Corp. and Viacom have already said they aren't interested in the bidding on the Magic Kingdom. And some potential buyers, like Time Warner (parent of FORTUNE's publisher), may be encumbered by debt and other issues. What's more, many highly prized media assets have already been bought up. Just last October, NBC agreed to buy Vivendi's Universal TV and movie businesses. Then, in December, News Corp. finalized its $6.6 billion deal for control of DirecTV, the largest satellite television provider in the U.S.

So rather than forecasting another string of blockbuster deals, analysts continue to sound a theme we noted in these pages last month (see "The Next Frontier: TV Takeovers" on fortune.com)--namely, that consolidation remains key for cable's smaller players, which need to bulk up quickly if they want to compete in a Comcast-dominated world. "We're moving into the last stage of consolidation across the whole industry," says media analyst Tom Wolzien of Sanford C. Bernstein, "and it's clear that over time the smaller cable guys are going to have to get big like the bigger cable guys or they have no clout against the big programmers."

Cablevision Systems (CVC, $25) is one of the likeliest candidates to be bought. With about three million subscribers, Cablevision's New York--area operations might make an attractive addition for Time Warner, which has made no secret of its desire to acquire more cable systems. The Comcast bid would seem to only increase the chances of a deal. "Cablevision is our favorite stock to buy coming out of the Comcast hostile-takeover proposal," noted Greenfield of Fulcrum.

Another cable operator drawing attention is Atlanta's Cox Communications (COX, $33). Along with Comcast, Cox is considered one of the industry's best-run outfits. (It recently ended its own showdown with Disney after contentious negotiations over the price increase for carrying ESPN.) In a February earnings call with analysts, CEO Jim Robbins said he would not scramble to acquire a content player as a result of Comcast's bid. "By operating very, very well on a regional basis, we're going to do just fine," Robbins said. That hasn't stopped speculation that Cox, with some 6.5 million subscribers, may look to grow by buying assets from a cable operator such as Adelphia Communications, which is still in bankruptcy. That speculation has pressured Cox stock, sending it down 10% from its 52-week high. "It's as cheap, on a multiple basis, as it's been for a long time," says Dennis Leibowitz of media and telecom hedge fund Act II Partners, who bought the stock after Comcast's bid for Disney. That may signal an opportunity, since many analysts see Cox being gobbled up in the long run.

It's not just cable systems that are being eyed as potential targets. With some nine million subscribers, satellite operator EchoStar Communications (DISH, $37) is the largest independent distributor left on the market and would greatly extend the reach of any acquirer. It's also growing faster than cable competitors. "It would seem to be the most logical player if it was willing to play," says Leibowitz. Should CEO Charlie Ergen, an erstwhile pro poker player, decide to deal, he could attract dueling bidders from the media and telecom sectors. It's no shock, then, that EchoStar shares shot up after the Comcast bid, leaving them trading at a premium to cable counterparts. The shares could still fall if Ergen rules out a merger or if competition with DirecTV takes a toll, so DISH may be a risky bet at this price.

Ultimately the storm surrounding the battle for Disney highlights just how well positioned Murdoch's News Corp. (NWS, $38) is these days. DirecTV completes News Corp.'s worldwide network of media and satellite properties and gives the company, alongside Time Warner, an edge in the race to combine content and distribution. "The huge growth opportunity is outside the U.S.," says Fulcrum's Greenfield, "and News Corp. is in the best position of any of its peers outside the U.S." With its Fox television holdings, News Corp. also stands to benefit substantially from the increase in ad spending expected later this year because of the presidential election--one contest this year that might be more frenzied than the media wars.